Interesting to watch the Analysts at play – as they give their call to the media. It is like watching the bulls and bears at play. There is still a great divide amongst the ranks of our erstwhile markets specialists about this rally. However there seems to be wider acceptance that there is some level of global recovery underway. The divide is also narrowing on the issue that valuations are becoming stretched – even the most optimistic are quietly conceding on this score.
Many still have the view that there is still momentum in the market. Technically there is, but it is fact that markets retrace and that they must do so even if they head higher from here. There is still an abundance of cash in the market waiting to find a home but it is a question of whether that cash surplus will enter the market now or await a pullback.
The Australian market fell marginally on Friday despite a strong Thursday on Wall Street. You might say the All Ords has a mind of its own. Well certainly it is a less volatile market and does not travel on every American “big dipper”. But there is also a view that the local market will under perform world markets generally and the US markets in particular as we do not have a predominance of stocks that have sufficient global growth exposure.
I still look for the “X” factor that will bring a pause – is it excess personal debt, inflated view of gobal growth or other non-economic factors. From a market investment perspective does it really matter?