Tom Scollon


Maybe. But depends on the perspective from which you look at it.

Strictly speaking it is out of Australia’s hands. The movement of the ADLR is dependent on the movement of the USDLR. ADLR will only respond. The rise and fall of the UDLR will be largely driven by political sentiment rather than the economic outlook. Political sentiment arise from a cauldron of many extraneous factors not the least of which is the results of the forthcoming elections, relationships with China and Russia in particular, its leadership role in the world and many other factors. This cauldron is like a thick broth at the moment rather than a hospital style clear broth. And this is creating uncertainty and that is likely to continue unless some real positive news pops out of the blue.
Otherwise the USDLR will continue its slide.

Lets look at the charts:


AUD/USD (FXADUS:FOREX): Daily Line Chart

Click to Enlarge


AUD/USD (FXADUS:FOREX): Weekly Line Chart

Click to Enlarge


And Monthly:

AUD/USD (FXADUS:FOREX): Monthly Line Chart

Click to Enlarge

The charts don’t give us a crystal-clear prognosis, but we can work around that.
In short, the daily and weekly say we will see the USDLR weaken till about election time and then firm. Thus, we will see the ADLR rise further and then settle back to below 60 cents.

USA election is key here.


Enjoy the ride

Tom Scollon