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The markets moved higher – “move” being something of a slightly dull term. The markets showed that maybe from here it is going to be something of a crawl to the top wherever that might be, but increasingly the experts are saying that is not far away. Who knows? Although the number of pundits who claim the market is overvalued is now gaining in number. And this is confirmed technically as many markets start off the day with energy only to fade as the day closes – a sure sign of caution and indecision.
The Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market key index, has risen almost 40% since its low of 2003 compared with the Australian market which has risen over 20% - a somewhat more cautious increase. The Nikkei started its run up over a month later - in April when it sat at its all time low of 7670 – compared to a high of almost 40,000 in the late 80’s!
For a while there it looked like “all our Christmases had come at once” with many thinking making money this way is just too easy. Apart from the fact I have laboured the point about retracements over the last several weeks there is in fact seasonality to retracements in many markets.
Some investors picked this stock market run up as early as March, some have picked it up over the last few weeks, some have just got in recently and are now wondering whether they should bail out and lastly there is the group that have remained on the sidelines. And I guess there are probably many investors that fit into almost all categories.
The last week again showed continuing momentum but despite the good news on the US reporting front, stocks did not match that with a surge of buying as much of the good news has been factored in. This could be a case of "buy the news sell the reality.” Indices volume is now starting to lag and this can also be seen in individual stocks both here in OZ and in the US. It’s called taking a breather – which is good to see. With the market having achieved such gains the propensity for further upside for the medium term, is abating as investors become more cautious.