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Our market was again US driven last week. The Australian bourse spiked on Tuesday in reaction to the positive response by US investors to the 8.2% GDP growth in the September quarter. Without taking anything away from the US markets, what is more important is what future level of GDP growth can be sustained? The 3rd quarter growth was largely from increased consumer spending part of which came from a tax cut but also some came from an increase in “fantastic plastic” credit which adds to the lurking “indebtedness” bubble.
Some may think I am obsessed with retracements. But I must persist as it is primary to understanding price movement. Just as markets retrace down when a market rises they also retrace up when the market is falling – this is part of the confusion and uncertainty as the tide changes.
What a dream run the markets have had over recent months - but unfortunately for the time being the easy paper profits are over. At the top of each market rally, confusion sets in - mixed feelings creep in to the market''''''''s psyche and equity sectors react in varying ways to the news around them.
The predictable 0.25% interest rate creep announced last Wednesday hit a number of sectors, notably the Banks, Retail, Building Materials and Infrastructure. The sulking response was surprising given that the expectations were so overwhelming for an increase – the only surprise was maybe that it was a month early.
The markets moved higher – “move” being something of a slightly dull term. The markets showed that maybe from here it is going to be something of a crawl to the top wherever that might be, but increasingly the experts are saying that is not far away. Who knows? Although the number of pundits who claim the market is overvalued is now gaining in number. And this is confirmed technically as many markets start off the day with energy only to fade as the day closes – a sure sign of caution and indecision.